There is a saying on the Internet forums that you shouldn’t feed the troll on a forum as its counterproductive. The same goes for geopolitics and global power. You shouldn’t “feed” your opponents. We have three examples that support the above thesis.
Signing the so called “nuclear deal” allowed Iran to gain a significant amount of cash. I can still remember the high orders placed on Airbus and Boeing aircraft by Iranian airlines. The money from oil and renewed trading was supposed do go back to USA, France, Germany and other countries standing behind the giants. Business is business. In many cases it went back, but just partially.
The rest of the funds was and is still being used for strengthening the regime in Iran. The extra amount of money is used to influence the politics in the region and Yemen is the key example. Thinking that Iran would completely dump the nuclear program is naive. They are strengthening their fundamentals riding on the good will of some world governments and at a key moment this problem will again pop up.
With North Korea it is worse as it already has nuclear weapons. The longer it has them the longer it is able to develop the means to carry them and the higher its power rises. There is absolutely no way North Korea will dump its key asset. The whole talks and concepts, road maps and plans are inefficient as at the end of the road the US would like to have no nuclear weapons in North Korea but this outcome is unacceptable for North Korea. A lot of talk and false moves by both sides and an impossible goal. The only reason for this theater might be a slight chance that at some point the regime will collapse under its own weight. It doesn’t look like it will happen soon and if we wait long enough the power of the country will only increase.
There is a lot of talk about sanctions on Russia but as I have already mentioned in a post on LinkedIn this is just a game designed for public opinion. Germany as other countries do, is putting sanctions but at the same time it buys natural gas from Russia. Is there any sense in it? Sanctions put pressure (some countries benefit more) on the economy and allow for lower income of the regime. New gas deals and pipes allow for increasing the cash flow to the regime. The money from the natural gas and oil allows for buying new armament and keeping the Russian regime in good shape. Ridiculous!
OK Mr. Wise guy! What to do?
All of the above paragraphs were easy to write as it is easy to point fingers. In the end the key part of each text should be the proposed way to solve the highlighted issues. It’s not hard to analysis an economic crisis post-factum. It’s hard to tell when it will come. That is why we have a lot of “smart talking heads” in the TV’s but when you think about it they are not that “smart”. If they were why would they work for “pennies” as “talking heads” instead of making real money on the market? Enough of those digressions. They are just a sneaky way to postpone the inevitable sentence. Here it comes!
I have no idea what to do!!!
Putting more sanctions on those countries will put even more pressure on the ordinary people. They will live in even worse conditions which are unimaginable for western societies. Is there any chance that this will allow for a revolution because they will have enough of this situation? I highly doubt it. All of the regimes are going strong and their propaganda machines are very well oiled. This brings me to a conclusion that we will have to get used to living in a world with more and more global players which will have more and more nuclear weapons.
The bottom line is that putting money into regime pockets strengthens those regimes. The current boom in Iran’s influence in the region is a direct outcome of US “getting out” and Iran having resources to influence the neighboring countries.
One might think that a delicate balance of sanctions and reliefs might be the best way to sustain the situation and hope that time will bring some better solutions. In some cases it is too late. The milk is already spilled and there is no way back.