Someone has to say it out loud: NATO is dead.
It was a fine organization for its time. It has served its purpose. The arch enemy died at some point, the west has believed in the dream about the end of history and here we are in a state where we only have NATO on paper. Lets look at the facts:
US president demands (rightly so) that NATO nations should invest more into defence, and finally he gains some traction. On the other hand he doesn’t state out loud that the US compared to its golden age is very weak. Back in the days it was able to fight two first class wars and a small conflict but today its just one war and maybe a small brawl on the side.
French president claims that the brain of NATO is dead but who would blame him as he has opposing views to Trump? He also has a rebellion on the side but the media somehow stopped reporting about the yellow vests. Information age at its finest.
Turkey puts even more demands on NATO because it wants to gain some ground in its endeavour in Syria. It also threatens the EU to open the flood gates and push yet another wave of illegal immigrants. At the same time Turkish president allows to escalate in Cyprus area and wants to search for oil and gas.
The Baltic states see that NATO wont help them and start to look for plan B. In a miraculous way the recent NATO summit stitches everything together but it wont hold. The interesting part is that Turkey stopped shouting its threats and this means that some sort of deal was struck under the table.
There are also unconfirmed rumours about further tightening the bonds between Russia and Belarus which means that the Baltic states in fact are lost.
I have already mentioned in a previous article about the nonsense of sanctions put on Russia when gas deals are struck. Wont repeat that.
So where does this lead us? Well. USA is in a death dance with China. Russia is an asset in this dance but it is uncertain who will win this asset. Selling parts of Europe for help against China sounds like a great deal for the US. If this would mean a victory I would take that deal while residing in the white house. There are no friendships there are only good or bad businesses. That is how global leaders think. The rest is only media noise.
From a Russian perspective the whole situation doesn’t sound good at all. Joining forces with China means that at some point there will ba a conflict between the two as Russia will be a junior partner and China has more, well, everything. Joining forces with the US puts as much threat for Russia as it will have to face China. Sooner than later it will have to do it but in this scenario sooner. Russia has its own problems but it is trying to gain some leverage and it steps into the countries left by the US in the Middle East. Can Russia sustain so huge investments? Can the oil and gas deals and armament sales provide enough money? I doubt it, but time will tell. Where will NATO be in all of this?
On top off all of the above we have an economic crisis which is very close (since a while) but there are various methods put into action to postpone it. Will they help? What will happen when they wont work and we will have an even bigger crisis than the last one? Will the countries stick together or will the bonds loosen even further when every economy will fight for itself? What will be the effect on NATO and its unity? How will the US-China trade deal end up? What will be the outcome of the next US election? A lot of moving pieces that can change the world map very rapidly.
Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. It will be interesting. That is certain.